More Questions from the E.N. Thompson Forum
-- Answers from Sarah Chayes
Wednesday, March 4, 2009, 7 p.m.
Download podcast of talk and initial Q&A (405 mb MP4)
GIVEN AFGHANISTAN'S HISTORY AND CULTURE, DO YOU THINK THERE IS HOPE FOR A CENTRALIZED GOVERNMENT FOR AFGHANISTAN THAT IS EFFECTIVE AND LONG-LASTING? MIGHT THERE BE AN ALTERNATIVE, SUCH AS ONE HEADED BY TRIBAL LEADERS?
The notion that Afghanistan is an irrevocably tribal country, impervious to a structured national government is a fiction that is being perpetrated by people who are imbued with British colonial ideas and literature, or who have focussed on the period of the 1980s, when Afghanistan was under attack by the Soviet Union. In fact, Afghans live easily with their "dual citizenship" -- their tribal/ethnic identities and their national identity. Every single Afghan I have met in more than 7 years has yearned for the time, before the 1979 Soviet invasion, when Afghanistan was effectively governed from the center. They welcomed our arrival in 2001 because they thought we would help them build responsible, responsive, capable government NOT tainted by extremism. It was our decision to re-empower entirely repudiated warlords and place them in political office that led to the current situation. This was not the wish of the Afghans. Tribal leaders have an important role to play as advocates for their people and as checks and balances on government action -- if they are so empowered -- but no Afghan wishes for a government of and by the tribes.
DO YOU THINK THAT THE US FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS PAKISTAN NEEDS TO CHANGE CONSIDERING ITS UNDERMINING OF OUR EFFORTS IN AFGHANISTAN? IF SO, HOW? HOW DO YOU STAND DOWN USA'S INVOLVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN?
Emphatically. I think the US ought to be firmer with the Pakistani military, which is cynically instrumentalizing extremism as a tool of regional power politics, and is trying subty to foment conflict with India as a pretext for maintaining a stranglehold on power. US policy should to the degree possible strengthen civil society institutions, should focus on development and education in the border regions, and seek to mentor the weak and sometimes counterproductive civilian national leadership.
VETERANS OF THE SOVIET-AFGHAN CONFLICT HAVE WARNED THAT THE PATH THE US IS TAKING IN AFGHANISTAN IS HAUNTINGLY FAMILIAR TO THAT OF THE SOVIETS THROUGHOUT THE 1980'S. DO YOU SEE PARALLELS? MIGHT THE US SUCCUMB TO THE SAME FATE AS THE SOVIETS IN AFGHANISTAN?
I wasn't in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation, so it's hard to judge. But I tend to avoid facile comparisons. One big difference: the Soviet Union sought to conquer Afghanistan. We don't. Afghans can tell the difference. But so long as we refuse to grapple with the fundamental problem Afghans experience -- their treatment at the hands of government officials we installed in power -- the situation will continue to deteriorate, and nothing we do militarily will make an impact. The better parallel for me, because it is American and I have read into it more carefully, is Vietnam. Incremental military escalation in support of a repudiated government will simply never work. There's a lot of good learning going on inside the US military about how to run this kind of a campaign, and we definitely need more troops at this stage to do anything. But we also need the political will to clean up the governance mess we created...and you don't do that by cutting bargains with Taliban.
IS THERE A POINT AT WHICH YOU DECIDE TO PLACE YOUR PERSONAL SAFETY BEFORE YOUR WORK IN AFGHANISTAN? IF SO, WHERE IS THAT POINT?
I am constantly adapting my posture here, in response to events. I have already curtailed my time in Kandahar each month, and my movements when I'm down there. But no, I can not imagine a time when security considerations alone would cause me to abandon my work here.
HOW HAS THE POSTPONEMENT OF ELECTIONS AFFECTED AFGHAN MORALE? IF YOU HAVE ONE, WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF THE UPCOMING AFGHAN ELECTIONS AND PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES? (I BELIEVE YOU ACCOMPANIED ONE TO THE SENATE.) WHAT IS THE UNITED STATES INFLUENCE IN PICKING THE AFGHAN PRESIDENT?
Afghans aren't upset about the change in date of the election so much as they are upset at the absolutely flagrant violation of any notion of "free and fair" -- with no reaction from the international community, including the United States. Tribal elders are being threatened if they support opposition candidates or positions, blatant efforts to buy votes are underway, and we are working to protect the SECURITY of this exercise, but not its integrity. Under these circumstances, many Afghans fear that President Karzai will return to office, whether they want him or not, and without any additional constraints as regards the corruption and malfeasance in his government. Such an outcome would make them desperate.
ARE THERE WAYS IN WHICH THE US HAS FAILED TO UNDERSTAND AFGHANISTAN AND AFGHAN CULTURE? WHAT CAN BE DONE TO FOSTER UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN AMERICANS AND AFGHANS?
Frankly, I am more struck by the underlying similarities between the basic aspirations of Afghans and Americans than their cultural differences. Perhaps this is the major thing Americans need to understand.
DO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE RESENT THE APPEARANCE OF PATERNALISM?
If it operates against their interests, yes. If it helps establish some minimum standards of performance, economic development, and gradual assumption of responsibility by Afghan individuals and institutions that have gained competence, not at all. Many Afghans say to me: "We could tolerate having Karzai back as president, so long as he had an American baby-sitter." This is another very counterintuitive realization I have made.
YOU SAID YOU KNOW PRESIDENT KARZAI AND HIS BROTHER. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT ALLEGATIONS OF THE CORRUPTION AND OF PRESIDENT KARZAI'S BROTHER'S INVOLVEMENT IN AND CONTROL OVER THE OPIUM TRADE? ARE THEY PART OF THE PROBLEM OR SOLUTION?
This is a difficult question for me to answer ethically, for the Karzai familiy has never treated me with anything but kindness...on the personal level. So, on a personal level, to speak as forthrightly as I feel I must constitutes in some way a betrayal. But there is absolutely no question in my mind that the Karzai brothers are a part of Afghanistan's problem -- if not one of its main causes. The corruption that has been reported is true and only the tip of the iceberg. I have become convinced, in fact, that the Karzais have been involved in a number of political assassinations and assassination attempts in the past five years. I think that what they have done to their country -- when the opportunity and expectations were so great -- is simply inexcusable.
I KNOW YOU FEEL STRONGLY AGAINST NEGOTIATING WITH THE TALIBAN, BUT IS THERE ONLY ONE DEGREE OF BEING TALIBAN? ARE THERE NOT LESS EXTREME FACTIONS (SWAT IN PAKISTAN) WITH WHOM WE SHOULD DIALOGUE FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL?
It is erroneous to try to divide the Taliban up into ideological gradations. In fact, most of the Afghans who are fighting with the Taliban aren't extreme at all. They are angry. They have been humiliated and abused by the government we put in power; they have had their property damaged or their relatives injured or killed in international military operations. They have been unable to make a living, or turn on lights in Kandahar, 7 years after the fall of the Taliban. The way to win this vast bulk of the "Taliban" back over is not to strike some kind of bargain, but to resolve their legitimate grievances. Any negotiating process will necessarily involve the ceding of power. And that means Taliban leadership, which DOES have an extreme agenda. And giving power to yet another type of group that aims to abuse the population (albeit in different ways than this government does) is not the solution to this problem set.
DO YOU THINK IF THE UNITED STATES OR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD STEPPED UP AND HELPED AFGHANISTAN AFTER THE WAR WITH THE SOVIETS THAT A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENED BETWEEN 2001 AND NOW WOULD BE DIFFERENT? IF YES, HOW?
Yes, emphatically. A proper peace-keeping mission would have disarmed the warlords so the degree of violent collapse of civil order that took place in the early 1990s would have been avoided, so there would have been no need for the Taliban regime, so al-Qaeda would never have found a foothold in Afghanistan... The implications are breathtaking.
HAVE YOU READ THE Kite Runner? WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF IT?
Yes. I loved it. Just some characters a little 2-dimensional.
HOW MANY LANGUAGES DO YOU SPEAK?
English and French almost interchangeably, Pashtu idiomatically, but I can't really read or write (very rudimentary), Arabic is back there somewhere, but every time I try to produce some, Pashtu comes out. It would take me a couple of months to get it back.
WITH THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE TALIBAN, ARE THE SCHOOLS THAT GREG MORTENSEN (Three Cups Of Tea) AND HIS ORGANIZATION STARTED STILL OPEN AND EDUCATING? HOW SUCCESSFUL ARE THE LOCAL VILLAGERS IN KEEPING THE SCHOOLS OPERATING WITH THE CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION?
Can't answer, as have not been in those parts of the country. But schools are under siege, not only because of the Taliban, but because a teacher's salary is $60/month, 1/2 the price of a gunny sack of flour. A normal family eats 2 of those a month.
GIVEN YOUR EXPERIENCE AND ENLIGHTENED IDEAS, CAN YOU TALK DIRECTLY TO PRESIDENT OBAMA? WHOSE "ear" DO YOU HAVE IN THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION? HOW HAVE YOU MANAGED TO GET THEIR ATTENTION?
There is an unprecedented degree of interest in Afghanistan in Washington these days. And I have been honored to have the opportunity to interact with many of the key decision-makers, both in Congress and the executive branch. Interestingly, I have found the military to be the most forthcoming of all. Military men and women are people who deeply respect "boots on the ground" time. And I am finding that even more than some civilian leaders, officers make distinctions between think-tank experts and those with real in-country experience. Two people I have not had a chance to meet, but would very much like to, are President Obama and Vice President Biden. I think they have received some erroneous advice about Afghanistan. And I think President Obama, at least, will "get it" immediately when he hears reality laid out for him.
WHAT ARE SOME OF ARGHAND'S MOST RECENT ACHIEVEMENTS/BREAKTHROUGHS?
We doubled production and sales in 2008 over 2007 -- despite the economy -- and we are just about to the point of switching over from the (very unreliable) city electric grid to all solar power!
PLEASE DESCRIBE THE EVOLUTION OF WOMEN'S RIGHTS IN AFGHANISTAN OVER RECENT YEARS.
Backwards, since 2002, at least in the south, due to Taliban encroachment and people's fear.
WHEN YOU RETURN TO THE U.S. FROM AFGHANISTAN, WHAT DO YOU NOTICE RIGHT AWAY? WHAT STRIKES YOU ABOUT THE U.S. THAT YOU MIGHT NOT HAVE SEEN OR NOTICED BEFORE?
Intensity of stimulus. Intensity and speed of interactions.
