Lincoln (Neb.) - Nov. 5, 1997 - If historical trends hold true, Nebraska retailers should experience December sales activity similar to the early 1990s, a marked improvement over the previous two Decembers.
The forecast, from John Austin and Lisa Darlington of the University of Nebraska Bureau of Business Research in the College of Business Administration, appears in the October issue of Business in Nebraska, the bureau's 10-times-yearly publication.
Austin, BBR research associate, and Darlington, BBR research coordinator, said the state's December non-motor vehicle net taxable sales are expected to rise to $1.8 billion, 7.8 percent above December 1996 levels. That's in marked contrast to 1995 and 1996, when the increases over the previous Decembers were 3.2 and 3.3 percent - holiday seasons that earned the labels "dismal" and "mediocre." Between 1991 and 1994, the average December increase was 8.4 percent.
The main reasons for the optimism, Austin and Darlington write, are the state's strong economic indicators, including solid gains in employment, inflation-adjusted wages, nonfarm and farm income, and total deposits in banks and savings and loans.
However, they write, factors could alter those prospects. One is low interest rates that could spur motor vehicle sales and reduce the level of other retail sales. Others are weather, the appeal of post-Christmas sales and catalog sales.
"It is also important to note that the day after Thanksgiving may no longer be the barometer of the season that it once was," they write. "Indications from recent years are that last-minute shopping may be a more accurate gauge of overall holiday sales performance."
Their forecast was based on the most recent annual forecasts of the Nebraska Business Forecast Council. The council will update its forecast in November and the new forecast will be presented in the next edition of Business in Nebraska.
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