Lincoln, Neb., Oct. 2, 2002 -- A study published in the October issue of Business in Nebraska that traces the economic growth of Nebraska's Tri-Cities area in the second half of the 20th century shows that the Grand Island-Hastings-Kearney area is one of the fastest-growing in the state.
Bree Dority O'Callahagan of Kearney, a senior economics and finance major at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and an undergraduate research assistant in UNL's Bureau of Business Research, examined three demographic areas for the study -- population growth, and ethnic diversity and age composition within the population for the census years 1950 and 2000 -- and also looked at the correlation between proximity to the Tri-Cities and population growth.
Dority O'Callahagan said the population growth rate for Adams (Hastings), Buffalo (Kearney) and Hall (Grand Island) counties closely followed the U.S. rate from 1950 to 2000, increasing by 71.7 percent, compared to 86 percent for the nation and 29.1 percent for Nebraska as a whole.
However, she said the Tri-Cities' growth booms and busts did not coincide with those for the nation or the state. The area saw its biggest population increase in the 1960s (22.4 percent), followed by a bust in the 1970s, when Hastings lost population. By comparison, the United States saw its biggest population growth of the half-century in the 1950s and statewide Nebraska experienced its biggest growth decade in the 1990s.
"This rapid growth (in the 1960s) was analogous to the expansion of the 1870s and 1880s when the (transcontinental) railroad was constructed," Dority O'Callahagan wrote. "Similarly, in the 1960s Nebraska's portion of the interstate highway system was completed. This opened the Tri-Cities to new opportunities as a natural hub since the area is equidistant from both coasts."
Dority O'Callahagan also found that minorities, particularly Hispanics in Grand Island, greatly increased their share of the area's population in the study period. The Tri-Cities were 99.4 percent white in 1950, but 90.9 percent white in 2000. In 1970, when the Census Bureau began collecting data on the Hispanic population, Spanish speakers comprised 2.4 percent of the population in Grand Island and Kearney. In 2000, the area was 9.9 percent Hispanic, including 16 percent in Grand Island.
The age composition of the Tri-Cities area's population was comparable to Nebraska as a whole in the period, with the exception of Kearney, Dority O'Callahagan wrote. The state and the area each saw a shift in its biggest age group from 25- to 34-year-olds in 1950 to the 35-44 age group in 2000. The biggest portion of Kearney's population, however, was in the 20-24 age group in 2000.
In addition, Kearney's dependency rate (the percent of residents younger than 20 and older than 65) decreased from 43.5 percent in 1950 to 39.7 percent in 2000, while Grand Island and Hastings each had increases in dependency rates.
"The data reveal that Kearney's population has become less dependent," Dority O'Callahagan wrote. "This could explain why Kearney grew faster throughout the past five decades than Grand Island and Hastings."
The study also showed that proximity to the Tri-Cities correlated with population growth in surrounding communities. Those within 15 miles of one of the Tri-Cities grew nearly 55 percent on average from 1950 to 2000, while those lying between 15 and 25 miles distant grew nearly 27 percent on average and those between 25 and 35 miles distant declined by an average of 13.5 percent.
Dority O'Callahagan said the growth is part of the west-to-east population shift Nebraska has experienced for several decades.
"Since the Tri-Cities are centrally located and clustered approximately 40 miles apart, they act as magnet communities that draw people from the western portion of the state -- especially those on the fringes of the Tri-Cities area," she concluded. "As people look to the central and eastern parts of the state to relocate, the Tri-Cities may seem more enticing because of their sizes and locations. They are not as large or as far away from home as Lincoln and Omaha."
Business in Nebraska is the 10-times-yearly newsletter of the Bureau of Business Research. A copy of the October issue of Business in Nebraska is available for download in Adobe Acrobat PDF format at the Bureau of Business Research Web site (www.bbr.unl.edu).
Contacts: Charles Lamphear, Director, Bureau of Business
Research, (402) 472-7928 (flamphear1@unl.edu) and
Bree Dority O'Callahagan, Undergraduate Research Assistant, BBR,
(402) 472-8730, (bocallag@unlnotes.unl.edu)
For questions regarding these releases, contact:
tsimons1@unl.edu
(402) 472-8514, Fax: (402) 472-7825