The traditional metrics for an undergraduate major examines students that graduate and don’t graduate based on their last declared major. Students are only counted once, because the objective of the data base is to count student totals. This analysis differs in two ways.

Touches

The objective of this analysis is to examine student success from the perspective of a major. A major has responsibility for the success if that student declares that major, even if that student subsequently changes majors. In other words, programs are responsible for any student that touches that major. Consequently, a student that changes majors will be counted multiple times within this analysis, which is appropriate because this analysis is at the level of the major, and not the individual or institution.

Transitions

In addition, a new transition category is included in this analysis. Transition refers to those students that declare a major, and subsequently graduate with a different major. From a student and institutional standpoint, transition students are successful outcomes. Majors with high transition rates, while not graduating students with that major, are successfully transitioning students to a different major in which they do graduate, which is a better outcome than having students never graduate with a degree.

Analysis Details

This is a lagging analysis, following students that began in 2012-2013, 2013-2014, 2014-2015. A cohort includes first time freshman and transfer students that begin in a given year, with students starting in the summer counted toward the next fall. Graduation is considered up to current time, i.e. Inter-college major codes are placed back into their major. Students in non-degree programs and pre-major programs and undeclared are not counted as touching a major until they declare a degree granting major. Primary and secondary majors are all counted equally. The top 60 majors in terms of total touches are included.

First, we examine student success regardless of major. Only students who declare a major are included so that the data is comparable to the per major analysis that follows. Here, each student is only included once because the purpose is to understand the institution as a whole.

Below is the fraction of student who declare a major and do not graduate with a degree, disaggreated by race/ethnicity as categorized by U.S. Department of Education groups.

Gray rectangles are 95% credible intervals. The credible intervals for the categories of “Unknown race and ethnicity” and “Asian” overlap with “White”. The credible intervals for the four highest rates of not graduating, do not overlap with “White”. That is the basis for combining “American Indian or Alaska Native”, “Black or African American”, “Hispanic”, and “Two or more races” into an “underrepresented” group and all remaining categories into a “represented” group. In other words, the first four categories are underrepresented in terms of their rate of graduation as compared to the representation of the remaining categories.

The reason to combine these four categories into an underrepresented grouping is that a larger combined group has greater statistical power to detect differences when compared to the represented group. Each group is borrowing power with each other.

Gap is the difference between Underrepresented Students and Represented Students in that fraction of students that declared a major and subsequently did not graduate.

Lost translates that into student numbers. It is the number of underrepresented students that did not graduate in excess of the expectation had the percent matched that of represented students.

Equity in Graduation for Race/Ethnicity
Percent that Did Not Graduate
Gap 95% CI2 Lost Underrepresented1 Represented
Fraction Number Declared Fraction Number Declared
All UNL 13.3 (10.9, 15.8) 230 40.5% 699 1725 27.2% 3797 13967

1 Includes American Indian or Alaska Native, Black or African American, Hispanic, and Two or More Races

2 Gap's 95% credible intervals

Intersectionality

Diversity within underrepresented students

 

Diversity within represented students. Note, the shading scale is the same as the above underepresented figure.

To Do: APLU

Not Graduating

Majors ordered by the difference between Underrepresented Students and Represented Students in that fraction of students that at one point declared that major and subsequently did not graduate, labeled below as Gap.

Lost translates that into student numbers. It is the number of underrepresented students that did not graduate in excess of the expectation had the percent matched that of represented students. This combines enrollment information with gap information, highlighting the potential for leverage to affect numbers of students.

The table includes the number of students that did not graduate and the total number of declared students. This can be used to identify programs which would benefit from a review.

 

Equity in Graduation for Race/Ethnicity
Percent that Did Not Graduate
Gap 95% CI2 Lost Underrepresented1 Represented
Fraction Number Declared Fraction Number Declared
AECN 58
2.3 75% 3 4 17% 32 188
AE 40
6.4 75% 12 16 35% 54 155
JOUR 27
14.1 49% 26 53 22% 75 335
COMP 27
15.9 62% 37 60 35% 171 487
HIST 26
7.1 56% 15 27 29% 65 223
FWL 25
5.7 52% 12 23 28% 56 203
CENG 22
7.6 60% 21 35 38% 136 354
MATH 19
6.7 36% 13 36 18% 48 273
BSAD 17
31.7 43% 79 183 26% 400 1548
MUED 16
2.3 43% 6 14 26% 31 117
ASCI 16
5.2 38% 12 32 21% 79 370
ECON 15
6.6 30% 13 43 15% 62 417
CHEM 15
3.4 48% 11 23 33% 51 154
BRDC 14
6.0 40% 17 42 26% 69 264
CIVE 14
9.5 42% 29 69 28% 132 467
ACTS 14
2.3 29% 5 17 16% 65 414
MUSC 13
2.0 40% 6 15 27% 30 113
BIOS 13
13.5 43% 44 102 30% 215 719
FORS 13
4.6 57% 20 35 44% 63 143
MECH 12
5.9 40% 19 48 27% 188 687
CHME 12
2.1 35% 6 17 23% 67 289
SPAN 11
7.1 24% 15 62 13% 19 149
ENVR 11
1.1 40% 4 10 29% 30 105
ELEC 11
4.2 37% 14 38 26% 74 287
PSYC 11
20.1 38% 71 187 27% 265 973
ENGL 11
5.1 31% 15 48 21% 60 290
CNST 10
2.9 36% 10 28 26% 61 239
ADPR 10
10.2 25% 26 105 15% 108 718
ART 9
4.3 44% 21 48 35% 86 247
MRKT 9
7.3 29% 24 84 20% 147 739
ABUS 8
0.7 25% 2 8 17% 57 344
ACCG 8
4.9 25% 15 59 17% 128 746
ATHT 8
2.4 45% 14 31 38% 87 232
ELED 7
2.2 10% 3 29 3% 8 279
NEHS 7
4.2 41% 25 61 34% 210 616
COMM 6
2.3 33% 13 39 27% 57 208
HRTM 5
1.5 29% 8 28 23% 55 236
FINA 5
1.9 18% 7 40 13% 107 834
MNGT 4
2.8 20% 13 64 16% 80 501
CYFA 4
3.3 19% 15 77 15% 47 308
NTRS 3
1.0 27% 9 33 24% 48 198
SCMS 2
0.3 15% 2 13 13% 18 137
BSE 2
0.5 21% 5 24 19% 51 272
POLS 1
0.9 27% 18 66 26% 87 336
SOCI −0
−0.0 27% 13 49 27% 34 128
ARCS −0
−0.0 11% 3 28 11% 15 139
BIOC −1
−0.5 26% 11 43 27% 93 348
TMER −1
−0.3 22% 4 18 24% 23 97
SPM7 −2
−0.1 0% 0 4 2% 2 121
SPLP −2
−0.1 0% 0 4 2% 3 124
VBMS −3
−0.7 30% 6 20 33% 32 96
PHYS −4
−0.4 30% 3 10 34% 39 115
ANTH −5
−0.9 28% 5 18 33% 27 83
MNEI −5
−0.7 8% 1 12 14% 13 94
GLST −6
−2.5 15% 6 41 21% 40 192
IBUS −7
−1.8 23% 6 26 30% 47 156
AGRO −7
−0.5 14% 1 7 22% 44 204
DIET −9
−2.3 15% 4 26 24% 62 256
PGAM −11
−0.4 25% 1 4 36% 36 101
MSYM −15
−0.8 0% 0 5 15% 18 118

1 Includes American Indian or Alaska Native, Black or African American, Hispanic, and Two or More Races

2 Gap's 95% credible interval is black line, zero gap is is green bar, UNL-wide gap is red bar, and the calculated gap is black circle

If the credible interval, represented by the black line, overlaps with the red bar, there is no statistical support to say that the major is any different from the overall university equity gap. Similarly, overlap with the green bar indicates no statistical support that the results are different from an equity gap of zero. In short, the credible interval illustrates the uncertainty of each equity gap. In many cases, the credible intervals overlap both with zero and with the UNL-wide equity gap because the number of students involved in the estimate is small enough that lots of uncertainty remains. In those cases, a conservative perspective would be to assume the same systemic issues that exist across UNL also exist within that major. The UNL wide estimate of the equity gap had sufficient number of students to clearly differentiate it from zero, and small numbers of students within a major cannot be taken as evidence for the lack of a equity gap that is significant across the institution.

 

Transitions

Majors that successfully transition students to other majors and subsequently graduate. These majors, potentially, can be used as as models of promoting successful transitions.

Transitioned
and Graduated with a Different Major
Underrepresented Represented
Fraction Number Declared Fraction Number Declared
VBMS 55% 11 20 32% 31 96
IBUS 54% 14 26 50% 78 156
ABUS 50% 4 8 35% 119 344
SPM7 50% 2 4 12% 15 121
FINA 48% 19 40 32% 269 834
BSAD 46% 85 183 56% 874 1548
ATHT 45% 14 31 44% 101 232
BIOC 44% 19 43 27% 95 348
AGRO 43% 3 7 12% 25 204
BSE 42% 10 24 26% 71 272
MNEI 42% 5 12 23% 22 94
CHME 41% 7 17 34% 97 289
PHYS 40% 4 10 36% 41 115
ECON 35% 15 43 27% 114 417
CHEM 35% 8 23 42% 64 154
ACCG 32% 19 59 30% 224 746
NEHS 31% 19 61 31% 193 616
DIET 31% 8 26 32% 82 256
SCMS 31% 4 13 18% 25 137
MATH 31% 11 36 21% 58 273
NTRS 30% 10 33 27% 54 198
MRKT 29% 24 84 24% 180 739
TMER 28% 5 18 37% 36 97
MUSC 27% 4 15 25% 28 113
FORS 26% 9 35 27% 39 143
HRTM 25% 7 28 19% 44 236
MECH 25% 12 48 29% 198 687
MNGT 25% 16 64 22% 111 501
BIOS 24% 24 102 28% 198 719
GLST 22% 9 41 24% 47 192
BRDC 21% 9 42 27% 72 264
MUED 21% 3 14 25% 29 117
SPAN 21% 13 62 27% 40 149
JOUR 21% 11 53 42% 141 335
CENG 20% 7 35 28% 100 354
POLS 20% 13 66 18% 62 336
COMM 18% 7 39 24% 49 208
ACTS 18% 3 17 29% 121 414
CIVE 17% 12 69 23% 109 467
ASCI 16% 5 32 15% 56 370
COMP 15% 9 60 22% 107 487
ART 15% 7 48 21% 52 247
ENGL 15% 7 48 14% 42 290
PSYC 14% 27 187 16% 158 973
ELEC 13% 5 38 21% 60 287
AE 12% 2 16 20% 31 155
SOCI 12% 6 49 22% 28 128
ANTH 11% 2 18 16% 13 83
HIST 11% 3 27 17% 37 223
ARCS 11% 3 28 9% 12 139
CYFA 10% 8 77 9% 27 308
ADPR 9% 9 105 13% 92 718
FWL 4% 1 23 15% 31 203
CNST 4% 1 28 4% 10 239
AECN 0% 0 4 11% 20 188
ELED 0% 0 29 4% 12 279
ENVR 0% 0 10 23% 24 105
MSYM 0% 0 5 8% 10 118
PGAM 0% 0 4 20% 20 101
SPLP 0% 0 4 2% 3 124

 

Top destinations to which students transition and graduate. This table can be used to view destinations of successful transitions from each program.

Successful Transitions
Top Destinations
1 2 3 4 5
ABUS AECN (52%) AGRO (8%) NA (5%) ASCI (4%) ACCG (3%)
ACCG FINA (22%) MRKT (14%) BSAD (11%) MNGT (10%) ECON (5%)
ACTS FINA (22%) ACCG (19%) MATH (8%) ECON (7%) SCMS (5%)
ADPR JOUR (9%) BRDC (8%) PSYC (8%) ART (6%) ENGL (6%)
AE CIVE (39%) CNST (18%) MECH (12%) CHME (9%) ARCS (6%)
AECN ABUS (24%) ASCI (24%) AGRO (19%) ACCG (5%) AEDU (5%)
AGRO AECN (19%) ABUS (13%) APSC (13%) AEDU (6%) ASCI (6%)
ANTH PSYC (12%) ADPR (6%) AGRO (6%) ART (6%) BIOC (6%)
ARCS ADPR (27%) IDES (13%) ACCG (7%) CIVE (7%) CNST (7%)
ART ADPR (32%) GDES (25%) PSYC (6%) HIST (5%) AHCR (3%)
ASCI AEDU (15%) ABUS (12%) FWL (12%) COEA (9%) APSC (7%)
ATHT NEHS (23%) PSYC (9%) CYFA (7%) BSAD (5%) MRKT (5%)
BIOC BIOS (17%) PSYC (13%) MBIO (6%) NTRS (4%) POLS (4%)
BIOS PSYC (18%) FWL (6%) NEHS (6%) NTRS (6%) MNGT (3%)
BRDC ADPR (44%) JOUR (19%) MRKT (6%) POLS (3%) PSYC (3%)
BSAD MRKT (17%) MNGT (16%) FINA (12%) ACCG (9%) ADPR (6%)
BSE BIOC (12%) MECH (10%) BIOS (8%) CHME (3%) CNST (3%)
CENG COMP (41%) ELEC (8%) MATH (7%) NA (6%) ACCG (3%)
CHEM BIOC (17%) CHME (6%) BIOS (5%) MATH (5%) NTRS (5%)
CHME BSE (13%) MECH (10%) BIOC (8%) ACCG (5%) CIVE (5%)
CIVE CNST (15%) MECH (11%) MATH (6%) ACCG (5%) BSE (4%)
CNST ECON (21%) ACCG (14%) MNGT (14%) AEDU (7%) BSAD (7%)
COMM ADPR (23%) POLS (9%) ETHN (6%) PSYC (6%) ENGL (5%)
COMP MATH (13%) ECON (7%) CENG (6%) FINA (6%) ACCG (5%)
CYFA CYAF (25%) ELED (14%) PSYC (11%) SOCI (11%) ADPR (6%)
DIET NEHS (19%) CYFA (18%) PSYC (9%) HRTM (5%) MRKT (5%)
ECON FINA (19%) ACCG (14%) POLS (8%) MNGT (8%) MRKT (8%)
ELEC CENG (16%) NA (10%) COMP (9%) MECH (7%) ACCG (6%)
ELED CYFA (50%) CYAF (17%) MRKT (8%) PSYC (8%) SPM7 (8%)
ENGL ADPR (13%) POLS (11%) PSYC (11%) BRDC (6%) ELAT (6%)
ENVR BIOS (14%) FWL (14%) ECON (7%) ENGL (7%) ENRS (7%)
FINA ACCG (24%) MRKT (12%) ECON (10%) MNGT (10%) FINI (8%)
FORS PSYC (13%) ADPR (8%) BIOS (8%) AEDU (6%) BIOC (6%)
FWL ASCI (12%) AGRO (9%) AECN (6%) ART (6%) ENRS (6%)
GLST POLS (11%) SPAN (7%) ENGL (6%) PSYC (6%) COMM (4%)
HIST POLS (16%) SSCI (13%) ADPR (9%) SOCI (9%) CLRS (7%)
HRTM ADPR (17%) HRTA (10%) MRKT (9%) COMM (7%) CYFA (5%)
IBUS ECON (10%) FINA (10%) MRKT (10%) GLST (9%) ACCG (8%)
JOUR ADPR (41%) BRDC (12%) ENGL (10%) PSYC (6%) ART (2%)
MATH COMP (14%) PSYC (10%) ACTS (9%) BIOS (8%) BIOC (5%)
MECH MSYM (10%) CIVE (9%) CNST (7%) ECON (5%) FINA (4%)
MNEI ADPR (9%) FINA (9%) MNGT (9%) ABUS (6%) FINI (6%)
MNGT MNEI (12%) MRKT (11%) FINA (7%) MNHR (7%) ACCG (6%)
MRKT ADPR (26%) MNGT (8%) FINA (8%) ACCG (7%) ECON (4%)
MSYM APSC (27%) AENG (18%) ABUS (9%) AECN (9%) AEDU (9%)
MUED MUSC (30%) ELED (8%) EMATH (5%) PSYC (5%) SPAN (5%)
MUSC MUED (24%) ADPR (12%) ACTS (9%) BIOS (6%) ENGL (6%)
NEHS CYFA (12%) PSYC (12%) DIET (11%) NTRS (9%) BIOS (5%)
NTRS DIET (19%) NEHS (15%) CYFA (6%) MNGT (6%) PSYC (6%)
PGAM ABUS (10%) ACCG (10%) AECN (10%) BSAD (10%) MNGT (10%)
PHYS MATH (23%) COMP (9%) ELEC (9%) ENGL (6%) CIVE (4%)
POLS GLST (10%) HIST (10%) ADPR (8%) ECON (7%) SPAN (5%)
PSYC ADPR (8%) CYFA (7%) ELED (5%) ENGL (5%) MNGT (4%)
SCMS MNGT (31%) MRKT (19%) ACCG (12%) HRTM (6%) MNHR (6%)
SOCI PSYC (19%) ENVR (11%) CYFA (8%) ENGL (8%) ETHN (8%)
SPAN GLST (10%) ADPR (8%) BIOS (8%) ENGL (8%) PSYC (8%)
SPLP CYFA (67%) ACCG (33%)
SPM7 ELED (53%) NA (18%) CYFA (12%) ECED (6%) HIST (6%)
TMER TCOM (19%) ADPR (16%) CYFA (9%) ELED (9%) PSYC (9%)
VBMS ASCI (21%) FWL (21%) BIOS (17%) ELED (7%) ADPR (5%)

 

Melt

While 6-year graduation rates are our most comprehensive metrics of undergraduate success, fall re-enrollment is a proxy of that information and can be more immediately measured. The term melt refers to students that do not enroll the subequent semester and have not graduated. While some of those students will return after a break, melt can provide year-specific information on the loss of students.

Assuming a “stable stage structure” we can examine retention in a single year.

UNL Melt by Class
Students enrolled in Fall 2014
Enrolled Melt Percent
Freshmen 3626 791 21.8%
Sophomore 2889 294 10.2%
Junior 4396 456 10.4%
Senior 5421 287 5.3%
Projected 40.4%

 

The product of retention (1-melt) for each class provides the predicted fraction not graduating assuming a “stable class distribution”. This value is not far off the actual rate for declared majors.

Naively, we could look at the gap in one-year retention rate.

UNL Melt by Race/Ethnicity
Students enrolled in Fall 2014
Enrolled Melt Percent gap
underrepresented 1611 266 16.5% 5.9
represented 14721 1562 10.6%

 

However, the above calculation fails to account to account for the fact that a student must continue through multiple years of education in a set of structured classed in order to graduate.

UNL Melt by Race/Ethnicity
Students enrolled in Fall 2014
Gap Underrepresented Represented
Percent Melt Enrolled Percent Melt Enrolled
Freshmen 8.4 29.0% 130 449 20.6% 671 3264
Sophomore 6.3 15.6% 48 308 9.3% 262 2815
Junior 1.6 11.3% 54 477 9.8% 420 4301
Senior 4.1 8.7% 46 530 4.6% 260 5627
Projected 13.4 51.4% 38.0%

 

 

UNL Melt by Race/Ethnicity
Students enrolled in Fall 2019
Gap Lost Underrepresented Represented
Percent Melt Enrolled Percent Melt Enrolled
Freshmen 3.8 22.1 19.3% 112 581 15.5% 526 3401
Sophomore 4.2 19.4 13.4% 62 464 9.2% 278 3026
Junior 1.8 12.5 7.7% 54 697 5.9% 286 4808
Senior 1.9 14.5 5.8% 44 757 3.9% 218 5596
Projected 8.6 39.2% 30.6%